Last run: 2021-01-22 13:10:48.648656 =======
-------------------- Confirmed cases stats: -------------------- <<<<<<< HEAD Mortality Rate : 2.18 % Recovered Rate : 56.31 % Confirmed Cases: 83488443 Recovered : 47010049 Total Death : 1818336 ======= Mortality Rate : 4.88 % Recovered Rate : 51.1 % Confirmed Cases: 10475838 Recovered : 5353272 Total Death : 511253 >>>>>>> 18945e11c11801cca81bb0ce70810f598a3c164f -------------------- World Population stats: -------------------- <<<<<<< HEAD Confirmed Cases: 1.09925 % Mortality Rate : 0.02394 % ======= Confirmed Cases: 0.13794 % Mortality Rate : 0.00673 % >>>>>>> 18945e11c11801cca81bb0ce70810f598a3c164f
Country Confirmed Deaths Recovered Mortality % Population Density/Pop Urban/Pop % Mortality/Pop %
United States 20032035 345955 0 1.73 331002651 36 0.83 0.10452
Brazil 7675973 194949 6848844 2.54 210147125 25 0.88 0.09277
India 10266674 148738 9860280 1.45 1380004385 464 0.35 0.01078
Mexico 1426094 125807 1074795 8.82 128932753 66 0.84 0.09758
Italy 2107166 74159 1463111 3.52 60461826 206 0.69 0.12265
United Kingdom 2496231 73622 5479 2.95 67886011 281 0.83 0.10845
France 2677666 64759 200142 2.42 65273511 119 0.82 0.09921
Russia 3127347 56271 2527722 1.80 145934462 9 0.74 0.03856
Iran 1225142 55223 988833 4.51 83992949 52 0.76 0.06575
Spain 1928265 50837 150376 2.64 46754778 94 0.80 0.10873
Argentina 1625514 43245 1426676 2.66 45195774 17 0.93 0.09568
Colombia 1642775 43213 1508419 2.63 50882891 46 0.80 0.08493
Peru 1015137 37680 951318 3.71 32971854 26 0.79 0.11428
Germany 1760520 33791 1350708 1.92 83783942 240 0.76 0.04033
Poland 1294878 28554 1036138 2.21 37846611 124 0.60 0.07545
South Africa 1057161 28469 879671 2.69 59308690 49 0.67 0.04800
Indonesia 743198 22138 611097 2.98 273523615 151 0.56 0.00809
Turkey 2208652 20881 2100650 0.95 84339067 110 0.76 0.02476
Belgium 646496 19528 0 3.02 11589623 383 0.98 0.16850
Ukraine 1086997 19281 736611 1.77 43733762 75 0.69 0.04409
=======
The bellow graphics show the evolution of the desease over time for some countries.
Logarithmic Scale¶
Bellow some graphics in log scale of Confirmed cases for the above countries.
Predicting the pandemic of Corona Virus is hard, bellow is a simple demonstration of curve fitting, using 2 types (exponential and sigmoid) for estimation.
Another problem is not knowing the actual mortality for the disease.
The mortality for Covid-19 are said to be something like 3.8%, but previous calculations (based on data from China) put the mortality to be somthing like 2%... if this is truth, and looking at the mortality for Brazil, US and Italy, we should be able to extrapolate and calculate the possible real number of people who has the disease (been asyntomatic or not).
BRAZIL -------------------- <<<<<<< HEAD Taking into account 3.8%, means that it should have 5635447 cases. Taking into account 2%, means that it should have 10707350 cases. ======= Taking into account 3.8%, means that it should have 1568263 cases. Taking into account 2%, means that it should have 2979700 cases. >>>>>>> 18945e11c11801cca81bb0ce70810f598a3c164f
UNITED STATES -------------------- <<<<<<< HEAD Taking into account 3.8%, means that it should have 10792157 cases. Taking into account 2%, means that it should have 20505100 cases. ======= Taking into account 3.8%, means that it should have 3353078 cases. Taking into account 2%, means that it should have 6370850 cases. >>>>>>> 18945e11c11801cca81bb0ce70810f598a3c164f
ITALY -------------------- <<<<<<< HEAD Taking into account 3.8%, means that it should have 2215842 cases. Taking into account 2%, means that it should have 4210100 cases. ======= Taking into account 3.8%, means that it should have 914921 cases. Taking into account 2%, means that it should have 1738350 cases. >>>>>>> 18945e11c11801cca81bb0ce70810f598a3c164f
2. Cases for US¶
Simple compilation of cases in United States.
Province_State Confirmed Deaths Mortality %
<<<<<<< HEAD
California 2297039 25986 1.13
Texas 1772784 28066 1.58
Florida 1323315 21673 1.64
New York 978783 37983 3.88
Illinois 963389 17978 1.87
Ohio 700380 8962 1.28
Georgia 666452 10934 1.64
Pennsylvania 645390 15947 2.47
Tennessee 586802 6907 1.18
North Carolina 539545 6748 1.25
=======
New York 393454 32032 8.14
California 231232 6082 2.63
New Jersey 171667 15035 8.76
Texas 163060 2455 1.51
Florida 152434 3505 2.30
Illinois 143185 6923 4.84
Massachusetts 108882 8053 7.40
Pennsylvania 91139 6649 7.30
Georgia 81291 2805 3.45
Arizona 79228 1645 2.08
>>>>>>> 18945e11c11801cca81bb0ce70810f598a3c164f
3. Cases for Brazil¶
Simple compilation of cases in Brazil.
For the entire Brazil, as of today, we have the following numbers:
Mortality Rate : 2.46 % Total Death : 214317 Confirmed Cases : 8704658 Mortality Rate/Pop : 0.10198 % =======
But, the story can't be told by the entire country, one must take into account, each state of the federation. Let's show data for each state in the federation.
UF Total Cases Deaths Mortality % Population Mortality/Pop %
São Paulo 1670754 50938 3.05 45919049 0.11093
Minas Gerais 668216 13891 2.08 21168791 0.06562
Bahia 553770 9760 1.76 14873064 0.06562
Santa Catarina 552310 6036 1.09 7164788 0.08425
Rio Grande do Sul 520313 10196 1.96 11377239 0.08962
Paraná 515464 9243 1.79 11433957 0.08084
Rio de Janeiro 494127 28440 5.76 17264943 0.16473
Ceará 359678 10299 2.86 9132078 0.11278
Goiás 335665 7226 2.15 7018354 0.10296
Pará 316176 7470 2.36 8602865 0.08683
=======
Each state tells a different story, but what about the capitals for some of those states?
Bellow some possible projections for the next 10 days of infected people for each capital showed above.
Deaths in each capital are growing... let's visualize how deaths are spread across some cities.
City Total Cases Deaths Mortality %
São Paulo/SP 448744 16855 3.76
Rio de Janeiro/RJ 182713 16543 9.05
Manaus/AM 103787 4502 4.34
Brasília/DF 267340 4452 1.67
Fortaleza/CE 91793 4262 4.64
Salvador/BA 120897 3300 2.73
Belo Horizonte/MG 78822 2104 2.67
Curitiba/PR 76530 2101 2.75
Porto Alegre/RS 77924 2048 2.63
=======
Much has been talked about that people in Brazil are young, so there's little risk for the population... but if we take into account that Brazil population is one of the biggest in the world and calculating death or hospitalization based on data provided by Imperial College and China CDC, Brazil could have more than 50k deaths. This is a simplistic view... it should take into account comorbidities to calculate those numbers.
CDC China:
--------------------
Age (years) Fatality Ratio %
0-9 0.0
10-19 0.2
20-29 0.2
30-39 0.2
40-49 0.4
50-59 1.3
60-69 3.6
70-79 8.0
80 14.8
Imperial College:
--------------------
Age (years) % symptomatic cases (hospitalisation) % hospitalised cases requiring critical care Fatality Ratio %
0-9 0.1 5.0 0.002
10-19 0.3 5.0 0.006
20-29 1.2 5.0 0.030
30-39 3.2 5.0 0.080
40-49 4.9 6.3 0.150
50-59 10.2 12.2 0.600
60-69 16.6 27.4 2.200
70-79 24.3 43.2 5.100
80 27.3 70.9 9.300
Given the above values (from Imperial College and CDC China) lets do a projection of the possible # of deaths in each Age group and given a possible interval of deaths that may occur.
Age Population # Hospitalization # Critical Care # Deaths (Imperial College) # Deaths (China CDC) 0-9 29340464 29341 1468 1 0 10-19 31089140 93268 4664 1 10 20-29 34324757 411898 20595 7 42 30-39 34130660 1092182 54610 44 110 40-49 28689589 1405790 88565 133 355 50-59 23477440 2394699 292154 1753 3799 60-69 16173590 2684816 735640 16185 26484 70-79 8654924 2103147 908560 46337 72685 80 3492257 953387 675952 62864 100041
Name Min. Deaths Max. Deaths
Imperial College 25465 229185
CDC China 40705 366346
Mean(Imperial + CDC China) 33085 297765
Age Min. Deaths Max. Deaths 0-9 0 0 10-19 1 9 20-29 4 44 30-39 15 138 40-49 48 439 50-59 555 4996 60-69 4266 38402 70-79 11902 107119 80 16290 146614
